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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 53

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 9-R.Dixon punts 33 yards to NYJ 20, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.87 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -3.26 EP
KICK -2.07 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model