4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 59

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 9-R.Dixon punts 44 yards to NYJ 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 23 for 8 yards (6-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.89 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 59, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model