Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to DEN 32, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-19-I.Charles. DEN-19-M.Mims was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYJ-19-I.Charles, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.87 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model