4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 84

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.44 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 42, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model