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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

JAX
36.6%
HOU
63.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.117 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: -0.050 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.033 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • HOU offense: -0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 20
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: HOU by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

JAX

Evan Engram TE Out Hamstring
Foyesade Oluokun LB Out Foot
Gabe Davis WR Questionable Shoulder
Jarrian Jones CB Questionable Shoulder
Devin Lloyd LB Questionable Knee
Darnell Savage S Questionable Quadricep

HOU

Tank Dell WR Out Chest
Dameon Pierce RB Out Hamstring
Jimmie Ward S Out Groin
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Shoulder
Joe Mixon RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 20
–
HOU 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:48 TD JAX (12:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-B.Thomas for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – HOU 0
  • Q1 07:29 TD HOU (7:29) (Shotgun) 1-S.Diggs scrambles left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – HOU 6
  • Q1 02:45 FG JAX (2:45) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 10 – HOU 7
  • Q2 07:23 TD HOU (7:23) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – HOU 13
  • Q2 03:54 FG JAX (3:54) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 13 – HOU 14
  • Q2 00:05 FG HOU (:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. JAX 13 – HOU 17
  • Q3 06:21 TD JAX (6:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – HOU 17
  • Q4 00:22 TD HOU (:22) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 33-D.Ogunbowale for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – HOU 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 82-S.Sims MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by JAX-20-D.Thomas at HOU 2.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (2:45) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 56%

    (:25) 6-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 4 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:54) 9-L.Cooke punts 58 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 75%

    (3:54) 39-C.Little 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:11) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:23) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to JAX 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 29%

    (4:39) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to HOU 1 for no gain (91-F.Fatukasi; 97-M.Edwards).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to HOU 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds. PENALTY on HOU-82-S.Sims, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at HOU 27.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to JAX 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Duvernay to JAX 28 for no gain (37-D.Ross).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-R.Woods to HOU 31 for 9 yards (51-V.Miller).