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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 53

Houston Texans 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.64 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP