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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to HOU 1 for no gain (91-F.Fatukasi; 97-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +3.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model