Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 71

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Houston Texans 17

(3:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-R.Woods to HOU 31 for 9 yards (51-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.38 EP
65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model