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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 39-C.Little 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.93 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model