4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 42

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:25) 6-T.Townsend punts 32 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model