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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 15 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 6 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 16-J.Karty 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.95 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model