4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

1-3 HC Sean McVay
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

2-2 HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 13:00 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US 💨 Windy Spread 3.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

LA
56.7%
CHI
43.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.311 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.123 EPA/dropback
  • CHI defense: -0.149 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LA 20 13–27
–
CHI 17 10–24
Projected margin: LA by 3 Projected total: 37

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

LA

Cooper Kupp WR Out Ankle
Davis Allen TE Questionable Back

CHI

Stephen Carlson TE Out Collarbone
Zacch Pickens DT Out Groin
Terell Smith CB Out Hip
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Heel
Andrew Billings DT Questionable Knee
Kevin Byard S Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 18
–
CHI 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:06 FG LA (4:06) 16-J.Karty 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 13:09 FG LA (13:09) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 05:46 TD CHI (5:46) 68-D.Kramer reported in as eligible. 23-R.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – CHI 6
  • Q2 00:13 FG CHI (:13) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. LA 6 – CHI 10
  • Q3 08:54 FG LA (8:54) 16-J.Karty 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 9 – CHI 10
  • Q3 02:43 TD CHI (2:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – CHI 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD LA (15:00) 23-K.Williams left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 15 – CHI 17
  • Q4 12:33 TD CHI (12:33) (No Huddle) 4-D.Swift left guard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 15 – CHI 23
  • Q4 08:52 FG LA (8:52) 16-J.Karty 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 18 – CHI 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to LA 5, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-21-J.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 81%

    (4:06) 16-J.Karty 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 64 yards to LA 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-X.Smith to LA 26 for 17 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 92%

    (13:09) 16-J.Karty 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 15 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

    (1:05) 16-J.Karty 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 15 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 88%

    (:13) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (8:54) 16-J.Karty 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 65%

    (8:52) 16-J.Karty 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 66 yards to LA 8, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64%

    (4:27) 42-E.Evans punts 67 yards to CHI 17, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-D.Carter to CHI 33 for 16 yards (35-J.Hummel, 20-R.Rivers). PENALTY on LA-33-C.Lampkin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 33.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 40%

    (1:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 35 yards to LA 8, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-36-J.Owens.

    See the full breakdown →