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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 22

Chicago Bears 7 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(:13) 8-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.79 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model