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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 15 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 16-J.Karty 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model