Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 74

Chicago Bears 24 – Los Angeles Rams 18

(6:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 66 yards to LA 8, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 74, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model