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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 27

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 16-J.Karty 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model