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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th & 1 at the 1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 0
What Actually Happened
(14:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.96 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.61 EP
KICK
+1.74 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT
-0.01 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
