4th & Data
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

PHI
39.6%
TB
60.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI defense: +0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.014 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Baker Mayfield (TB): +0.096 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PHI 20
–
TB 23
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

PHI

Devin White LB Out personal matter
DeVonta Smith WR Out Concussion
A.J. Brown WR Questionable Hamstring
Lane Johnson T Questionable Concussion

TB

Calijah Kancey DT Out Calf
Antoine Winfield S Out Foot
Jalen McMillan WR Doubtful Hamstring
Rachaad White RB Questionable Illness
Luke Goedeke T Questionable Concussion
Bucky Irving RB Questionable Hamstring
Kameron Johnson WR Questionable Ankle
Ko Kieft TE Questionable Ankle
Vita Vea DT Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 16
–
TB 33

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:48 TD TB (9:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – TB 6
  • Q1 05:08 TD TB (5:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 10-T.Palmer for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – TB 13
  • Q2 14:13 TD TB (14:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – TB 20
  • Q2 07:21 FG TB (7:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill. PHI 0 – TB 24
  • Q2 02:00 TD PHI (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 80-P.Campbell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – TB 24
  • Q3 12:40 TD PHI (12:40) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – TB 24
  • Q3 06:53 TD TB (6:53) 7-B.Irving left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – TB 30
  • Q4 13:04 FG TB (13:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill. PHI 16 – TB 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:59) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to TB 20, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 10-T.Palmer.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:38) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to TB 22, Center-49-R.Lovato. 10-T.Palmer to TB 27 for 5 yards (57-B.VanSumeren, 81-G.Calcaterra).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 15 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:16) 16-T.Gill punts 42 yards to PHI 18, Center-45-Z.Triner. 33-C.DeJean MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-51-J.Russell at PHI 22.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (14:13) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:54) 10-B.Mann punts 70 yards to end zone, Center-49-R.Lovato, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (7:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 80-P.Campbell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:21) 16-T.Gill punts 37 yards to PHI 20, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:01) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to TB 28, Center-49-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 22%

    (:17) 16-T.Gill punts 32 yards to PHI 21, Center-45-Z.Triner. 54-J.Trotter to PHI 21 for no gain (32-J.Hayes).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 70%

    (13:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:47) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to PHI 23, Center-45-Z.Triner, fair catch by 33-C.DeJean.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 26%

    (4:15) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 42 for -7 yards (98-A.Nelson).