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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 4-C.McLaughlin 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.43 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 3, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP