4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(:17) 16-T.Gill punts 32 yards to PHI 21, Center-45-Z.Triner. 54-J.Trotter to PHI 21 for no gain (32-J.Hayes).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.37 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -1.32 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model