4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 14

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 14, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model