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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
IND Home

Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2024-09-29 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

PIT
49.8%
IND
50.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Anthony Richardson (IND) -0.108 vs Justin Fields (PIT) -0.007 EPA/dropback
  • PIT offense: -0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
IND 22
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

PIT

Alex Highsmith LB Out Groin
MyCole Pruitt TE Out Knee
Jaylen Warren RB Out Knee
Isaac Seumalo G Doubtful Pectoral
Russell Wilson QB Questionable Calf

IND

Kenny Moore CB Out Hip
Kwity Paye DE Out Quadricep
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Neck
Tyquan Lewis DE Questionable Calf
Braden Smith T Questionable Knee
Chris Lammons CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 24
–
IND 27

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:09 TD IND (12:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 02:38 TD IND (2:38) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short right to 1-J.Downs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – IND 13
  • Q2 12:34 FG IND (12:34) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. PIT 0 – IND 17
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 3 – IND 17
  • Q3 02:59 TD PIT (2:59) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – IND 17
  • Q4 14:50 TD IND (14:50) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass short middle to 85-A.Ogletree for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – IND 23
  • Q4 11:29 TD PIT (11:29) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – IND 24
  • Q4 06:06 FG IND (6:06) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. PIT 17 – IND 27
  • Q4 03:45 TD PIT (3:45) (Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 23 – IND 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 15 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 59%

    (7:26) 8-C.Waitman punts 27 yards to IND 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:33) (Shotgun) 62-R.McCollum reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields left guard to PIT 39 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (12:34) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:06) 8-C.Waitman punts 40 yards to IND 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Downs to IND 28 for 5 yards (83-Co.Heyward). ** Injury Update: PIT-51-Ni.Herbig has returned to the game.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 54%

    (8:21) 81-M.Alie-Cox reported in as eligible. 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. PENALTY on PIT-34-J.Elliott, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at PIT 7.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:21) 8-R.Sanchez punts 34 yards to PIT 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 80%

    (:03) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 41%

    (10:32) 8-C.Waitman punts 36 yards to IND 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to PIT 37, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-C.Austin to IND 33 for 30 yards (83-K.Granson).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 70%

    (5:55) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (6:06) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:46) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right to 11-V.Jefferson [95-A.Adebawore].