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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 43

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 81-M.Alie-Cox reported in as eligible. 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to PIT 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-C.Austin. PENALTY on PIT-34-J.Elliott, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at PIT 7.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.47 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP