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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 48

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(10:32) 8-C.Waitman punts 36 yards to IND 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.01 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 48, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.06 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP