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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 36

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 7-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.90 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model