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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 7-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.83 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model