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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 15 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 8-C.Waitman punts 27 yards to IND 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 41, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model