4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(:33) (Shotgun) 62-R.McCollum reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields left guard to PIT 39 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model