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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to DET 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 15 for 6 yards (25-K.McIntosh).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model