Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DET offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- DET defense: +0.087 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- SEA offense: +0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- Jared Goff (DET): +0.123 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
SEA
DET
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:16 TD DET (3:16) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – DET 6
- Q2 15:00 TD DET (15:00) 26-J.Gibbs right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 0 – DET 13
- Q2 10:12 TD SEA (10:12) (Shotgun) 9-K.Walker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – DET 14
- Q2 05:16 TD DET (5:16) 26-J.Gibbs right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – DET 20
- Q3 09:53 TD SEA (9:53) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 88-A.Barner for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – DET 21
- Q3 07:03 TD DET (7:03) (Shotgun) 14-A.St. Brown pass short left to 16-J.Goff for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – DET 27
- Q3 03:09 TD SEA (3:09) 9-K.Walker left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – DET 28
- Q3 03:03 TD DET (3:03) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 9-J.Williams for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-9-J.Williams, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SEA 20 – DET 34
- Q4 14:57 TD SEA (14:57) 9-K.Walker left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 26 – DET 35
- Q4 05:29 TD DET (5:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – DET 41
- Q4 02:05 SAF SEA (2:05) 16-J.Goff sacked in End Zone for -4 yards, SAFETY (55-D.Jones). SEA 29 – DET 42
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DET 4th & 20 at the 83Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(12:54) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to SEA 33, Center-49-H.Hatten. 33-D.Williams to SEA 41 for 8 yards (51-B.Niemann; 49-H.Hatten). PENALTY on SEA-22-T.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 33.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 3 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EPp(convert) 55% p(FG) 36%
(10:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to DET 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 10 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%
(1:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to DET 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 15 for 6 yards (25-K.McIntosh).
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Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 86Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(:23) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to SEA 38, Center-49-H.Hatten. 33-D.Williams to SEA 39 for 1 yard (51-B.Niemann).
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Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 66Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(12:48) 7-G.Smith up the middle to SEA 36 for 2 yards (44-M.Rodriguez; 31-K.Joseph).
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Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 57%
(12:55) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to SEA 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 18 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(9:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.
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Q4 SEA 4th & 3 at the 3 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49% p(FG) 99%
(2:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Lockett.