Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 86

Detroit Lions 21 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(:23) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to SEA 38, Center-49-H.Hatten. 33-D.Williams to SEA 39 for 1 yard (51-B.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.26 EP
62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 86, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model