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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 50

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to DET 7, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.73 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP