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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 18 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.59 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 54, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model