4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 3

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Detroit Lions 42

What Actually Happened

(2:16) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short left to 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 3, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model