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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 34

Tennessee Titans 3 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.58 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model