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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Monday 2024-09-30 · 19:30 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

TEN
39.2%
MIA
60.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Tyler Huntley (MIA) -0.091 vs Will Levis (TEN) -0.183 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Tyler Huntley in place of Skylar Thompson)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19
–
MIA 22
Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

Jeffery Simmons DT Doubtful Elbow
Amani Hooker S Questionable Head
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Hamstring

MIA

Terron Armstead T Out Concussion
Kendall Fuller CB Out Concussion
David Long LB Doubtful Hamstring
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Chest
Skylar Thompson QB Questionable Ribs
Malik Washington WR Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 31
–
MIA 12

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:21 FG TEN (14:21) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – MIA 0
  • Q2 08:26 FG TEN (8:26) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 04:18 FG MIA (4:18) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. TEN 6 – MIA 3
  • Q2 00:01 FG TEN (:01) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 9 – MIA 3
  • Q3 09:07 FG MIA (9:07) 7-J.Sanders 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. TEN 9 – MIA 6
  • Q3 06:04 TD TEN (6:04) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 2-T.Spears. 2-T.Spears right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 15 – MIA 6
  • Q3 00:41 FG TEN (:41) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 19 – MIA 6
  • Q4 10:49 FG TEN (10:49) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 22 – MIA 6
  • Q4 03:40 TD MIA (3:40) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 22 – MIA 12
  • Q4 02:33 SAF TEN (2:33) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [58-H.Landry]. PENALTY on MIA-18-T.Huntley, Intentional Grounding, 8 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. TEN 24 – MIA 12
  • Q4 00:30 TD TEN (:30) 60-D.Brunskill and 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 30 – MIA 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:18) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to TEN 44, Center-48-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%

    (14:21) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 38%

    (12:27) 10-T.Hill left end pushed ob at TEN 46 for no gain (28-Q.Diggs).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 70%

    (8:26) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 85%

    (4:18) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 38%

    (2:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to TEN 17, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 34 for 17 yards (48-B.Ferguson; 6-A.Walker). MIA-6-A.Walker was injured during the play.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 36%

    (1:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 21 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 45-D.Riley MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine at MIA 26. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-R.Stonehouse punts 22 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-44-M.Brown.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to TEN 44, Center-48-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to TEN 16, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 24 for 8 yards (33-S.Neal; 45-D.Riley). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 24.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:53) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 0-B.Berrios to TEN 48 for 27 yards (46-M.Cox).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%

    (9:07) 7-J.Sanders 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:33) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to TEN 26, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 41 for 15 yards (45-D.Riley; 22-E.Campbell). PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 72%

    (:41) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (14:14) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right tackle to MIA 38 for -1 yards (53-E.Jones, 97-J.Lynch).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (10:49) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 24
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

    (5:25) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short right to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at TEN 6 for 18 yards (39-D.Baker).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%

    (2:42) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 35 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-44-M.Brown.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:30) 60-D.Brunskill and 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.