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Tennessee Titans

1-3 HC Brian Callahan
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Miami Dolphins

1-3 HC Mike McDaniel
Monday 2024-09-30 · 19:30 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

TEN
34.5%
MIA
65.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • QB edge to MIA: Tyler Huntley (MIA) -0.091 vs Will Levis (TEN) -0.183 EPA/dropback (MIA starting Tyler Huntley in place of Skylar Thompson)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19 12–26
–
MIA 22 15–29
Projected margin: MIA by 3 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

Jeffery Simmons DT Doubtful Elbow
Amani Hooker S Questionable Head
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Hamstring

MIA

Terron Armstead T Out Concussion
Kendall Fuller CB Out Concussion
David Long LB Doubtful Hamstring
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Chest
Skylar Thompson QB Questionable Ribs
Malik Washington WR Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 31
–
MIA 12

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:21 FG TEN (14:21) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – MIA 0
  • Q2 08:26 FG TEN (8:26) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 6 – MIA 0
  • Q2 04:18 FG MIA (4:18) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. TEN 6 – MIA 3
  • Q2 00:01 FG TEN (:01) 6-N.Folk 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 9 – MIA 3
  • Q3 09:07 FG MIA (9:07) 7-J.Sanders 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey. TEN 9 – MIA 6
  • Q3 06:04 TD TEN (6:04) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 2-T.Spears. 2-T.Spears right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 15 – MIA 6
  • Q3 00:41 FG TEN (:41) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 19 – MIA 6
  • Q4 10:49 FG TEN (10:49) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 22 – MIA 6
  • Q4 03:40 TD MIA (3:40) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 22 – MIA 12
  • Q4 02:33 SAF TEN (2:33) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right [58-H.Landry]. PENALTY on MIA-18-T.Huntley, Intentional Grounding, 8 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. TEN 24 – MIA 12
  • Q4 00:30 TD TEN (:30) 60-D.Brunskill and 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 30 – MIA 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:18) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 0-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to TEN 44, Center-48-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 67%

    (14:21) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 38%

    (12:27) 10-T.Hill left end pushed ob at TEN 46 for no gain (28-Q.Diggs).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 15 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 70%

    (8:26) 6-N.Folk 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 85%

    (4:18) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 38%

    (2:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to TEN 17, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 34 for 17 yards (48-B.Ferguson; 6-A.Walker). MIA-6-A.Walker was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 36%

    (1:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 21 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 45-D.Riley MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine at MIA 26. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-R.Stonehouse punts 22 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-44-M.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to TEN 44, Center-48-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to TEN 16, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 24 for 8 yards (33-S.Neal; 45-D.Riley). PENALTY on TEN-23-T.Avery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 24.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:53) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 0-B.Berrios to TEN 48 for 27 yards (46-M.Cox).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%

    (9:07) 7-J.Sanders 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:33) 16-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to TEN 26, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 41 for 15 yards (45-D.Riley; 22-E.Campbell). PENALTY on MIA-33-S.Neal, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 41.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 72%

    (:41) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (14:14) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right tackle to MIA 38 for -1 yards (53-E.Jones, 97-J.Lynch).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%

    (10:49) 6-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 24
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

    (5:25) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short right to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at TEN 6 for 18 yards (39-D.Baker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 8 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 46%

    (2:42) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 35 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-44-M.Brown.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (:30) 60-D.Brunskill and 61-J.Ojukwu reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →