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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 26

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Ferguson, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.35 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP