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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 3 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to TEN 17, Center-48-B.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 34 for 17 yards (48-B.Ferguson; 6-A.Walker). MIA-6-A.Walker was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 74, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model