Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 6 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 21 yards to MIA 26, Center-46-M.Cox. 45-D.Riley MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine at MIA 26. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 4-R.Stonehouse punts 22 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-44-M.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.87 EP
61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP

KICK -0.73 EP

36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
64% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model