4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 24

Miami Dolphins 6 – Tennessee Titans 22

What Actually Happened

(5:25) (Shotgun) 18-T.Huntley pass short right to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at TEN 6 for 18 yards (39-D.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.79 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP