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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 22 – Miami Dolphins 12

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 35 yards to MIA 8, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-44-M.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.46 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.06 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model