Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 91

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(4:22) 16-J.Bailey punts 47 yards to TEN 44, Center-48-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.18 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 91, worth -5.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model