4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP