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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 16:05 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

ARI
31.8%
SF
68.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.248 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) -0.014 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22
–
SF 28
Projected margin: SF by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

ARI

Isaiah Adams G Out Thumb
Garrett Williams CB Out Groin
Trey McBride TE Questionable Ribs
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Hamstring
Christian Jones T Questionable Ankle
Matt Prater K Questionable Left Knee
Khyiris Tonga DT Questionable Knee

SF

Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles LB Out Calf
Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Knee
Chris Conley WR Doubtful Oblique
Isaac Yiadom CB Questionable Thigh
Kalia Davis DT Questionable Knee
Jacob Cowing WR Questionable Shoulder
George Kittle TE Questionable Ribs
Fred Warner LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 24
–
SF 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:20 TD ARI (13:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – SF 0
  • Q1 10:29 FG SF (10:29) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. ARI 7 – SF 3
  • Q1 02:22 TD SF (2:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – SF 9
  • Q2 12:47 FG ARI (12:47) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 10 – SF 10
  • Q2 07:02 FG SF (7:02) 4-J.Moody 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. ARI 10 – SF 13
  • Q2 05:09 TD SF (5:09) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-J.Elliott), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin, RECOVERED by SF-2-D.Lenoir at SF 39. 2-D.Lenoir for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – SF 19
  • Q2 00:01 FG SF (:01) 3-M.Wishnowsky 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk. ARI 10 – SF 23
  • Q3 10:03 FG ARI (10:03) 38-C.Ryland 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 13 – SF 23
  • Q4 11:30 TD ARI (11:30) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 84-E.Higgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-91-S.Okuayinonu, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. ARI 19 – SF 23
  • Q4 01:40 FG ARI (1:40) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 24 – SF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:11) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 28 for 1 yard (30-G.Odum).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (10:29) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:38) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SF 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds. Penalty on SF-51-R.Beal, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (12:47) 38-C.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 99%

    (7:02) 4-J.Moody 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 85%

    (5:09) 38-C.Ryland 45 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-J.Elliott), Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin, RECOVERED by SF-2-D.Lenoir at SF 39. 2-D.Lenoir for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (:01) 3-M.Wishnowsky 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to SF 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 88%

    (10:03) 38-C.Ryland 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 18-M.Harrison to SF 46 for 14 yards (22-I.Yiadom) [56-L.Floyd].

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 95%

    (1:40) 38-C.Ryland 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.