Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 68

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

(14:11) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to ARI 27, Center-46-T.Pepper. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 28 for 1 yard (30-G.Odum).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.69 EP
57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model