Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 23

(13:35) 12-B.Gillikin punts 60 yards to SF 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.93 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model