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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 24

Arizona Cardinals 10 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 38-C.Ryland 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.91 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model