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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 10

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 4-J.Moody 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 10, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model