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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 16

Houston Texans 14 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(8:00) (No Huddle) 33-D.Ogunbowale right guard to BUF 16 for no gain (43-T.Bernard; 39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.04 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model