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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2024-10-06 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

BUF
54.3%
HOU
45.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • HOU defense: -0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.154 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25
–
HOU 23
Projected margin: BUF by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

BUF

Austin Johnson DT Out Oblique
Ed Oliver DT Out Hamstring
Taylor Rapp S Out Concussion
Khalil Shakir WR Out Ankle
Terrel Bernard LB Questionable Pectoral
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Forearm

HOU

Derek Barnett DE Out Shoulder
Jerry Hughes DE Out Hip
Joe Mixon RB Out Ankle
Azeez Al-Shaair LB Questionable Illness
Jake Hansen LB Questionable Back
Tytus Howard T Questionable Hamstring
Kurt Hinish DT Questionable Calf
Dylan Horton DE Questionable Illness
Dameon Pierce RB Questionable Hamstring
Robert Woods WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 20
–
HOU 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:30 FG BUF (6:30) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 03:01 TD HOU (3:01) 22-C.Akers left guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – HOU 6
  • Q1 01:43 TD HOU (1:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – HOU 13
  • Q2 00:03 FG HOU (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. BUF 3 – HOU 17
  • Q3 11:19 FG HOU (11:19) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. BUF 3 – HOU 20
  • Q3 08:53 TD BUF (8:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – HOU 20
  • Q3 04:30 TD BUF (4:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 16 – HOU 20
  • Q4 03:21 FG BUF (3:21) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. BUF 20 – HOU 20
  • Q4 00:02 FG HOU (:02) 15-K.Fairbairn 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. BUF 20 – HOU 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:29) 8-S.Martin punts 55 yards to HOU 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:12) 6-T.Townsend punts 40 yards to HOU 49, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 20 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (6:30) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:50) 8-S.Martin punts 38 yards to HOU 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:50) 8-S.Martin punts 63 yards to HOU 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 19 for 17 yards (54-B.Spector; 44-J.Andreessen).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%

    (8:00) (No Huddle) 33-D.Ogunbowale right guard to BUF 16 for no gain (43-T.Bernard; 39-C.Lewis).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 39%

    (2:48) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to HOU 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (1:16) 6-T.Townsend punts 61 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 28 for 5 yards (17-K.Boyd, 29-M.Stewart).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:43) 8-S.Martin punts 59 yards to HOU 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 2-R.Woods pushed ob at HOU 49 for 36 yards (56-J.Solomon).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 78%

    (:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 83%

    (11:19) 15-K.Fairbairn 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:13) 6-T.Townsend punts 33 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 39%

    (4:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:26) 6-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to BUF 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross. PENALTY on HOU-37-D.Ross, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 14.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 49%

    (13:38) 8-S.Martin punts 33 yards to HOU 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:01) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to HOU 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 2-R.Woods to HOU 2 for no gain (46-J.Ingram).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (3:21) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 15 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 39%

    (:41) 6-T.Townsend punts 46 yards to BUF 3, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-17-K.Boyd.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 97 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:16) 8-S.Martin punts 56 yards to HOU 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 2-R.Woods to BUF 46 for 13 yards (26-Ty.Johnson).